Probabilistic tropical cyclone model

Example: Raster return period maps showing tropical cyclone wind speeds using Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) statistical analysis.

Step-by-step guidance

1. Dataset-level metadata

Select the following values when describing your dataset:

  • Risk data type: hazard

  • Title: “Probabilistic tropical cyclone wind hazard maps for [region]”

  • Description: Brief description of the modeling approach and GEV analysis methodology

  • Publisher: Organization or research institution that produced the model

  • License: Appropriate license

2. Resources

Add resources for each return period map:

  • Format: geotiff or netcdf

  • Spatial resolution: Resolution in meters or degrees (e.g., 1000m, 0.01 degrees)

  • Coordinate reference system: EPSG:4326 or appropriate projected CRS

You may have multiple resources for different return periods (e.g., 10-year, 50-year, 100-year, 500-year).

3. Hazard metadata

Under the Hazard section:

Event sets

  • Analysis type: probabilistic

  • Calculation method: simulated or statistical

  • Event count: Number of return period scenarios included

  • Occurrence range: Range description (e.g., “1/10 to 1/500 years”)

Hazards (within the event set)

  • Hazard type: wind

  • Processes: tropical_cyclone

  • Intensity measure: v_ect(3s):kph (3-second gust wind speed in km/h) or v_ect(1m):mph (1-minute sustained wind in mph)

4. Statistical analysis

Add information about the extreme value analysis:

  • Statistical method: Select GEV (Generalized Extreme Value)

  • Return periods: List the return periods available (e.g., 10, 25, 50, 100, 250, 500 years)

5. Spatial coverage

Define the geographic extent:

  • Scale: national or regional

  • Countries: Select applicable ISO 3166-1 alpha-3 country codes

  • Bounding box: Specify coordinates of the model domain

Key considerations

  • Each raster file typically represents one return period

  • Ensure intensity measures are clearly specified with units

  • GEV analysis parameters (location, scale, shape) may be documented in additional details